The Widow has prevailed upon me to do a brief statistical analysis of the Eye-Candies to see what sort of chance her guys have this year. And, after her first-game gloating, I'm getting the feeling that this could be a year-long battle of the sexes.
After pondering the possible courses of action, I've chosen the easiest. I could have compared the Widow's team to each of the other teams in her league, but that seemed like too much work. Instead I opted to compare them to one uber-team, The Knoxville Photons. Ok, so there's no reason to think that the Photons are an uber-team (other than that I put them together), but they were selected on playing potential and not looks, so they're a decent control group.
As for the comparative stat of choice, I'm going with win shares. Do either of our leagues use win shares? No. Are there procedural problems with using win shares? Sure, because it counts fielding, a part of the game our leagues don't count. But like I said at the beginning, this is about ease, not about impeccable statistical analysis.
You already know the Eye-Candies, so let me introduce my guys, the Knoxville Photons (so named because I'm a photographer and, you guessed it, we live in Knoxville). Here are both teams along with the win shares for each player.
|Javy Lopez 30||Jason Varitek 17|
|Tino Martinez 11||Mark Teixeira 13|
|Michael Young 21||Jose Vidro 19|
|Eric Hinske 2||Aubrey Huff 21|
|Jose Reyes 12||Derek Jeter 18|
|Craig Biggio 20||Carlos Beltran 28|
|Pat Burrell 9||Manny Ramirez 28|
|Jose Cruz 17||Marlon Byrd 16|
|Joe Randa 14||Milton Bradley 18|
|Brad Ausmus 2||Torii Hunter 16|
|Joe Mauer 0||Roberto Alomar 7|
|Eli Marrero 3||Corey Koskie 21|
|Ryan Klesko 13||Bobby Crosby 0|
|Jeff Cirillo 3||Vinny Castilla14|
|Larry Walker 18|
|Tim Hudson 23||Javier Vazquez 21|
|Mark Mulder 17||Keith Foulke 21|
|Brad Lidge 8||Hideo Nomo 17|
|Jaret Wright 1||Brandon Webb 17|
|Eric Milton 2||Wade Miller 9|
|Tim Wakefield 12||Carlos Zambrano 18|
|Joe Mays 2||Jake Peavy 7|
|Francisco Rodriguez 9|
|Chad Cordero 2|
|Jerome Williams 9|
It's not so clear that my team is tremendously better, but they should be, right? Please, someone tell me they should be. The Eye-Candies average 11.5 ws per player and the Photons are right at 15.4 ws. That's way closer than I would have expected. On top of that, her team tops mine at 3 positions: Catcher, Second Base, and Staff Ace.
The biggest deficiency the Eye-Candies face is the lack of a closer, but the Widow just doesn't feel right about relaxing her standards to add someone who didn't make the cuteness cut. Oddly enough, there's plenty of talent in the waiver wire/free agent pool. Baez, Rhodes, Macdougal, and Kolb are all available closers. (And speaking of available players, Photon's starters Milton Bradley, Vinny Castilla, Mark Teixeira are all unowned in the Widow's league).
So, what have we learned? The Eye-Candies may actually perform well this year, thanks to guys like Javy Lopez, Craig Biggio, Pat Burrell, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. That's not such a bad core. If the surrounding cast puts up good performances I think it's reasonable for them to finish in the top half of the league.